Inspired by the word Grexit created by the economist Willem Buiter, the Britain-exit takes the lead these days. In June 23rd 2016, a referendum was organized to decide the future of the British and the “leave” has won by 51.9% to 48.1%. The article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty stated that “a member state which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention… any member state may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements”. Due to that fact, the United Kingdom started the process on March 29th 2017 meaning it should officially stop on 29 March 29th 2019 without any delay even if a “transition period” from March 29th 2019 to 31st December 2020 is planned.
Seen as one the richest contributors in the European Union’s budget, in the meantime fifth powerful country in the world; the consequences of the Brexit are just unpredictable despite the power of the United Kingdom in the world scale. First diplomatic partner with the United States of America, in terms of defence also their role in the European Union was irrevocable with 55 Billions of Dollars in 2016 as budget and soon on. Conscious of their superpower, they finally decided to fly with their own wings pretexting that their contribution to the European Union budget is not worth participating; to reduce expenses they can easily negotiate agreements with the European institutions as the Norway, the Switzerland, and the Canada did…
Thus, a great number of negotiations were launched to deal properly with the Brexit, but great concerns are raised so far: the Ireland’s border between The Republic of Ireland and the Northern Republic of Ireland, the question of the European citizens living in Great Britain and vice-versa, their participation in the current budget of the European Union, the preservation of a single market etc. However, the Brexit is said to stir again old wounds of the Irishmen, the Good Friday Agreement or The Northern Ireland Peace Agreement signed in 1998 after experiencing 30 years of civil war. The European Union’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier has proposed a backstop to temporary keep the border opened since an important flow of people is recorded 30.000 persons per day and to avoid a hard border whereas 31% of Northern Ireland exportations went to the Republic of Ireland in 2016.
Many Brexiteers have interpreted this proposal as a way of controlling their trade and economic policies even after the official withdrawal of the United Kingdom in the European Union, and siding with the Northern Ireland after the Brexit seeing their will to stay in the European Union during the referendum. Either there is one official agreement concerning the single market including all the countries or no deal at all according to the British people.
In addition, the European Commission’s press release published on December 19th 2018 in Brussels, untitled Brexit: European Commission implements “no-deal” Contingency Action Plan in specific sectors stated that “member states should take measures to ensure that UK citizens legally residing in the EU on the date of withdrawal will continue to be considered legal residents”; this just to assure the legal residents that there is no way of being expelled if their papers are in order.
What is striking at last is the fear of a “no-deal” next March, are we going to assist to the definite withdrawal of the United Kingdom or a giving up of the idea of leaving the European Union that could be fatal because it will reduce the free exchange between the European countries and reinforces their vulnerability in case of terrorism attacks for instance to name but a few?
Sources
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6851_en.htm
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/fr/policies/eu-uk-after-referendum/
https://www.ig.com/fr/brexit-pour-et-contre
https://www.lemonde.fr/referendum-sur-le-brexit/article/2018/09/21/brexit-qu-est-ce-que-le-backstop-propose-par-l-ue-pour-resoudre-la-question-irlandaise_5358441_4872498.html
https://www.ft.com/content/6b6f8a98-e811-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3
https://www.touteleurope.eu/actualite/brexit-l-accord-de-sortie-en-8-points-cles.html
https://www.touteleurope.eu/actualite/qu-est-ce-que-le-brexit.html
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-negotiation-no-deal-european-commission-publishes-briefing-planning/
https://www.lemonde.fr/referendum-sur-le-brexit/portfolio/2017/06/23/irlande-du-nord-la-nouvelle-frontiere-du-brexit_5150332_4872498.html